Posted by: Marshall Sponder | June 29, 2008

Using Radian6 to predict the Presidential Election – Part 2

I don’t know if there was a part 1 – but I used the Radian 6 New Topic Cloud Widget to find a way of finding keywords to run for Search Campaign and ended up with a lot more than that.

The New Topic Cloud Widget was set up to pick up keywords and conversations tied to the two major candidates for the 2008 Presidential Election and the outcome of it:

What I did was look at most of the “hotter” keywords and extract the key phrases and then the key arguments for all those in yellow, tan and red (those that are larger).

I got a lot more than I expected – pretty much a vision of the Election and the next 4 months and how the election will probably play out – see my outcome spreadsheet.

I’m a little nervous about “summarizing” the information – but I was surprised to see that much of the information pointing at Obama is questioning of him, both in experience and what he’ll do.  I expected to find more hard core online opinional support than I did, using the Radian6 Engagement weighting to rank the citations.

On the McCain side – there’s the sense that he’s going hit Obama hard, very hard, and some of the hits will come from events from the outside – possible attacks and another “October Surprise“. Gun Control and Immigration are also going to come up as issues.

I would say, given what we have seen in the last two Presidential Elections, I would be prepared for anything come October ….. if I were Obama, especially if the race is close – which it looks like it’s going to be.

Since the Economy is going in tailspin, it’s likely that both candidates will take running mates that are strong Economic Wizards and / or National Security Wizards .. who that’s likely to be yet, I’m not sure.

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