I was searching for other stuff and ran across a 2004 Marc Faber piece that seems remarkably prescient. It contains one extremely interesting calculation:

Remember also, that if China’s per capita oil consumption went to the level of Mexico’s per capita consumption China would consume 24 million barrels of oil daily, which would be close to 30% of global production. And since it is most unlikely that current total global oil production of 80 million barrels per day can be increased much – in fact, it may begin to decline because no major oil field has been discovered since 1965 – I expect that prices will increase further in future – possibly far more than anyone is now expecting.

I just hope that Faber was wrong about this:

And, in the case that oil prices were to rise in real terms to their 1980s highs – well over US$ 100 – then the foundation for World War Three would be laid …