Posted by: Marshall Sponder | April 23, 2008

Thoughts about the Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania

I was thinking, last night and this morning, that with the results in for Hillary beating Barack by 55% to 45%, it’s now clear both candidates need each other to have any real chance of winning against McCain.  It’s becoming clear now.

While the positions of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are fairly similar on most issues, the demographics and states they appeal to aren’t the same at all; Barack wins in the smaller, less populated states, overall, while Hillary wins in bigger states.

From a metrics perspective (I am a web analyst, after all) who leads the ticket should be the one that can get the most people to vote for them in a general election, since in my mind, it’s a forgone conclusion that the ticket is going to end up being Hillary/Obama or Obama/Hillary.

The real issue is which one will head the ticket?  Who’s on the Democratic Ticket has already been decided – Democratic voters want both candidates – it’s just that different parts of the party want one or the other – but at the end of the day, I believe they’re better off, despite their personality clashes, being on the same ticket.

The way I’d determine, if I were a Super Delegate, which person heads the ticket, is calculate the groups that will vote and which candidate can get more of them in the general election that might end up swinging over to McCain, and then make that candidate the head of the ticket.

And let’s not discount John McCain, as much as he’s vowing to maintain deeply unpopular positions such as the Iraq War and Corporate Tax cuts for the rich, he’s also a War Hero, who is running while America is at War (even if the wars are largely fabricated and caused by the Republicans).  We can only imagine what they might do next – maybe, all of a sudden, next October, “North Korea flairs up” – a big crisis happens and people think .. yeah, we need McCain to lead us.

I would not put that by certain people – the conflicts kinda exist already, all someone would have to do is rub some salt in old wounds.  I just hope that whatever happens next fall, we see through it – and not fall for the bait.


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