Posted by: Marshall Sponder | February 5, 2008

Microsoft Yahoo Scenarios – Henry Blodget

In Handicapping the YHOO-MSFT Scenarios puts the probability that

40%…. YHOO Rejects, MSFT Bids Higher, Sale Happens, 40% probability. – Deal makes significant strategic sense for MSFT.

Based on analysis of valuation assuming $1B in synergies (MSFT’s goal), our sense of the strategic value of Yahoo! to Google vis-a-vis Google, and our review of bid histories in the software space makes us think this is the most likely outcome – 40% chance.

20% ..…. 1.  YHOO Hits the $31 Bid,

Logic: attractiveness of a 62% premium, likely lack of alternative bidders, YHOO’s limited strategic options.

 

I think the first possibility – Yahoo gets a higher price per stock but the deal goes through is what is going to happen.

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