In Handicapping the YHOO-MSFT Scenarios – puts the probability that
“40%…. YHOO Rejects, MSFT Bids Higher, Sale Happens, 40% probability. – Deal makes significant strategic sense for MSFT.
Based on analysis of valuation assuming $1B in synergies (MSFT’s goal), our sense of the strategic value of Yahoo! to Google vis-a-vis Google, and our review of bid histories in the software space makes us think this is the most likely outcome – 40% chance.
20% ..…. 1. YHOO Hits the $31 Bid,
Logic: attractiveness of a 62% premium, likely lack of alternative bidders, YHOO’s limited strategic options.
I think the first possibility – Yahoo gets a higher price per stock but the deal goes through is what is going to happen.
